Weekend Preview: Will "Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs" Rain As Box Office King?
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs - 3,119 theaters - $27 million
1. This is based on a popular childrens book. Movies that are based on books have built in audiences, which helps box office a lot, but a movie with a built in kids audience is even better because it drags parents into the theater.
2. Advertising has been strong, the premise is fun, and reviews are great. All of these things will help the box office.
3. Isn't it kind of nice to just get a nice, normal computer animated film? None of this 3-D mumbo jumbo. Imagine how refreshing it will be when Disney debuts The Princess And The Frog later this year and we get nice, normal traditional animation!
Jennifer's Body - 2,701 theaters - $13 million
1. Some analysts have this earning more, but I'm not convinced that Megan Fox is actually a box office draw. Guys love to see her in the Transformers movies, but that's like saying Keira Knightley is the reason guys saw the Pirates of the Caribbean films. Action and adventure will get men into the seats, and though they'll gobble up the gorgeous women selling themselves on the screen, I don't believe that is the main drawing factor. Fox has yet to prove she can open a movie, and as Sorority Row taught us last week, hot girls aren't enough to make something a box office hit.
2. In the film, Megan Fox becomes some sort of zombie, but the advertisements make her look more like some sort of vampire. I'm sure this is intentional, as vampires are the new penguins in terms of consumer appeal, and it will probably help a bit.
3. R Ratings are not good for box office. Especially for a movie headlined by someone with a very young fanbase.
The Informant! - 2,505 theaters - $12.5 million
1. I'm not going to lie. I had heard nothing about this movie until last week, but it looks like it's being marketed as a Coen Brothers-style farce by Steven Soderbergh.
2. Matt Damon is another star who has yet to prove himself as a box office draw outside of the Bourne and Oceans franchises. Still, he's reached a certain level of celebrity in the last two years. You know, the kind where you can go on any late night talk show whenever you want. The kind where you can get on the cover of People without any movie to promote. It's called the A-list, and while Damon is no Brad Pitt, he'll certainly bring some crowds to the theater.
3. Calling your movie The Informant! instantly places it into the realm of politics. Movies about politics are tough sells, especially these days, when people have just about had enough of our own government. The subject matter is the biggest negative to this film's box office.
Love Happens - 1,898 theaters - $12 million
1. The reviews are terrible, the title is horrendous, and the theater count is pretty low. But this is a romance, and romances are review-proof. If P.S. I Love You can make $53 million, then I simply can't believe that this, a film with much more star power, will flop.
2. Jennifer Aniston is a box office draw. She proved it with Marley And Me, The Break Up, and He's Just Not That Into You. People don't give her the credit she deserves
3. Nights In Rodanthe opened in late September last year to $13.4 million, but that movie looked more romantic and less dour, so I think Love Happens will perform similarly.
Holdovers
Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself will plummet this weekend, as all Tyler Perry films do in their second weekend. Don't be surprised if it undercuts by $10 million prediction. 9, meanwhile adds 399 theaters, to bring its venue count to 2,060. That should soften it's second weekend decline, giving it a $6.3 million weekend. Here are the full box office predictions:Box Office Predictions for September 18-20, 2009
1. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs - $27 million
2. Jennifer's Body - $13 million
3. The Informant! - $12.5 million
4. Love Happens - $12 million
5. I Can Do Bad All By Myself - $10 million
6. 9 - $6.3 million
7. Inglorious Basterds - $3.6 million
8. All About Steve - $2.7 million
9. The Final Destination - $2.4 million
10. Whiteout - $2.2 million
What are your predictions? And what do you think of mine? Let me know in the comments!
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2 comments:
Um... Jen's last two movies were based on popular books and He's Just Not That Into You had many stars in it. Every ad and poster for Marley and Me featured the DOG without Jen in sight
The marketing for He's Just Not That Into You focused mostly on Aniston as the lead, so I think its performance had a lot to do with her.
Marley And Me had a crazy good performance ($143 million), and that was NOT just because it was based on a book. Her movies are generally very successful, whether people want to admit it or not.
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